1. EA Sea-Way (WP4) Assessment of the Adriatic port system and its integration with hinterland Ivana Čavka, M.Sc., B.Sc. University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering Vojvode Stepe 305, Belgrade, Serbia e-mail: i.cavka@sf.bg.ac.rs

2. CONTENTS OUTPUT No. 2 Hinterland connections 1.Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region 2.Airports and air connections in Adriatic-Ionian region OUTPUT No. 5 Report on scenarios 1.Scenario analysis for road transport in Adriatic-Ionian region 2.Scenario analysis for air transport in Adriatic-Ionian region OUTPUT No. 6 Guidelines

3. Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region Road traffic flows analysis covers a total of 17 ports from 6 countries: Croatia (Rovinj, Pula, Krk, Malo Lošinj, Rab and Dubrovnik) Italy (Trieste, Chioggia, Ravenna, Ancona, Termoli and Bari) Slovenia (port of Koper) Montenegro (port of Bar) Albania (Vlore and Sarande) Greece (Igoumenitsa)

4. Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region (Croatia)

5. Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region (Italy)

6. Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region (Slovenia)

7. Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region (Montenegro)

8. Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region (Albania and Greece)

9. Road infrastructure in the hinterland of Adriatic-Ionian region Detailed distribution of traffic flows on the main coridors that lead to the areas of ports in the region in each country with their respective value of the average annual daily traffic (AADT) Detailed overview of the actual traffic flows within the areas of ports in the region, where the level of detail involves following data: the year in which the actual traffic flow is realized (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013) categories of motor vehicles - passenger car, bus and truck (available for the years 2012 and 2013) seasonal inequalities (Seasonal inequalities are expressed using a defined average summer daily traffic (ASDT). ASDT represents the average daily number of vehicles that pass through the road section in the summer period, from 1 July to 31 August.) Values of the realized average daily traffic volume expressed in vehicle kilometers [vehkm] within the areas of ports in the region Figures and trends in relation to the obeseved years and season (by observing all four years, traffic has greater intensity during summer period than in the other months for approximately 85%)

10. Scenario analysis for road transport in Adriatic-Ionian region Total realized traffic volume on the road network for the certain area depends on a number of factors which can be divided into several groups: geographical and location parameters, socio-economic and sociopolitical characteristics, deployment activities, the characteristics of the transport network, the parameters of the movement of passengers and cargo. Most of the mentioned factors in the prediction of traffic or transport volume on the road network are based on TRANSTOOLS transport model. Therefore, this software package was used for analyzing the scenario development of the road sector.

11. Scenario analysis for road transport in Adriatic-Ionian region Three development scenarios are considered: pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenario. As a first step for conducting this study, current situation overview (2010, 2011, 2012) was provided as well as the forecast of the future transport volume (short-term until the year 2020 and mid-term until the year 2030) at the level of entire territory of each country in the Adriatic-Ionian region, according to available data and forecasts relating to periods. The results obtained in the first step are therefore the results of real scenarios. Pessimistic scenario results are obtained by subtracting the traffic volumes for 10%, while the optimistic scenario results are obtained by increasing the traffic volumes for 10%. In the second step, the projection of traffic volume changes was performed from the level of the whole road network on the country level to the regional level of each country (areas of considered ports).

12. Airports and air connections in Adriatic-Ionian region Airports and air connections in the Adriatic-Ionian region Assessment of the Adriatic-Ionian national airlines Assessment of Adriatic-Ionian basin airports network Air transport capacity and facts Historic air passenger traffic trends

13. Airports and air connections in Adriatic-Ionian region Some facts... By applying TEN-T (Trans-European Transport Networks) categorization on the airports in the Adriatic region it can be noted that only few airports, based on their traffic performance are considered as International connecting points, while others could be in the second category as Community connecting points or Regional connecting points. The airports in Adriatic region are mainly equipped with one runway longer than 2,400 meters enabling operations of narrow and wide body jets such as B767-300 and A310-300, while some runway systems are able to accept even the largest body passenger aircraft (B747-400, A380, A340-500). Other airport capacity limitations are visible in taxiway systems, aprons, gates and passenger terminal areas and even though airport runways that are capable to accommodate largest passenger aircraft mentioned limiting factors preclude its usage.

14. Airports and air connections in Adriatic-Ionian region S  Geographic position and level of air routes network development;  Airports infrastructure resources;  Available resources for aviation sector connection to port, road and rail resources;  Membership in European aviation organizations of Adriatic region countries;  Available sources for potential regional airports network development and its connectivity with the rest of Europe W  Insufficiently usage of existing airport infrastructure (particularly for small size airports with seasonal character of aircraft operations);  Lack of modern air navigation system (in some airports);  Lack of financial resources for air mode infrastructure development;  Weak and insufficiently steady political position of some non EU countries;  National monopoly on several airports;  Lack of cargo resources;  Lack of airports interconnection by rail;  Insufficient airports utilization by passengers and aircraft due to their capacities;  Lack of certain airports interconnection with ports O  Interests of airports development as an open markets in European air transport network;  Future possibility to air cargo transport increase;  Possibility for establishing international and regional port connectivity by air;  Possibility for reducing travel time within the ports by air connection T  Lack of aviation infrastructural development projects in relation to ports hinterland by air connectivity;  Slow aviation infrastructure development due to single air package projects;  Manifestation of partial and local interests inside the countries;  Long lasting economic crisis aiming the passenger decreasing trend;  Airports seasonal character

15. Scenario analysis for air transport in Adriatic-Ionian region International and Intercontinental flights development (optimistic scenario - Best) – It is not possible to expect that the future development of airports in the Adriatic region would be equal for all countries, but there is still great opportunity to develop new routes which will continue to expand the number of potential passengers use ports services. The possible way of future development should be based not only on hub connectivity, with the expected growth rate of 5% RPK. Regional and International flights development (realistic scenario - Modest) – This scenario considers existing flights routes between Adriatic region and other European cities. The expected growth rate is evaluated as 2% of RPK growth, according to GDP and forecast until 2032. This scenario will cover minor growth of passenger using port services, while the growth rate is perceived on the basis of tourist destinations within the region. Municipal and local oriented airports (pessimistic scenario - Worst) – This scenario is not expected to be held within the large number of airports within the Adriatic region, but still some future trends should bring reductions in RPK or number of operations for some seasonal airports. Above all, some global economy drivers, Ukrainian crisis, etc. could provide reductions in larger airports but not more than 5% in the total RPK within the region.

16. The main goals.... Road traffic is still predominant on the Adriatic basin network since this is the only transport mode connected to all observed ports. Railway traffic is quite less used since the infrastructure is not equally developed in the whole region and this market is still deregulated which in some connections require much more travel time compared to other modes, especially with air transport. Ground access infrastructure requirements will invariably start with an efficient road network linked to the local system, required not only for cars but also for buses. Cooperation between air traffic stakeholders in order to prepare a plan to implement shorter plane routes should be enhanced. Better coordination between the ‘Functional Airspace Blocks’ can ensure a needed transition from domestic air traffic management arrangements to a more integrated European dimension. Further nodal planning for multimodality should be developed. The overlap of different freight and person transport leads in many nodes to congestion and loss of productivity. Terminal infrastructure is also missing or little developed to combine the different modes. In this context air transport can play a key role in allowing access to remote regions. This would at the same time improve the conditions for location development on the spot and for shifting transport volumes to more energy efficient and environmentally friendly transport modes like rail and water. Networks between relevant stakeholders should be set up in order to improve the quality of the transport system and logistic chains between the nodes and within the nodes – with a focus on sustainable transport modes such as railways and waterways.

17. Thank you for your attention!