1. Title Kevin Harris, ColumbiaGrid

2. Overview Historic Gas Prices Forward NG Prices Coal Prices 2

3. Historic West NG 2010-15 Most of the west trading Hubs trade below Henry Hub 3 ● Southern California Boarder trade around Henry Hub ● When West Hubs trade significantly below Henry indicates an over supply in the West

4. NG Storage Short term: Coming out of 2015 withdraw season with full storage placed down word price pressure on West NG prices. 4 Winter of 2014-15 was -11.6% below 2013-14 Both were below normal

5. Historic West NG 2014-15 Sumas is less than AECO for most of 2015 5 ● Fracking in the West and limited pipeline capacity to the east has resulted in depressed NG prices relative to Henry Hub ● Has development of NG in BC market change dynamics in the West?

6. Forward West NG Market Forward SNL data goes through 2021 Escalate to 2026 yields Henry Hub $4.00+/MMBtu 6

7. Northeast NG Fracking has changed regional relationships of NG price. 7 TETCO M3: West PA into NJ Transco Zone 6 NY: NY City Area Note the drop of TETCO M3 and Transco Zone 6 below Henry Hub in 2014 and 2015 except in peak winter months Historic Supply Regions CO, NM through MS, the Gulf and Alberta

8. Coal Price Fuel cost data from EIA-923 for utility owned projects Issues of using data: Check for abnormal spikes Example: Four Corners 1-5 (units 1-3 retired 12/31/2014 560 MW) – A ~$294.5M one time settlement payment in Dec-2014 8

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