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KMB Presentation by: Mei-Hsuan Chao Zuojia Chen Suyang Hong Jung Hyun Kim 12/08/2009
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Company profile Macroeconomic analysis SWOT analysis Industry analysis Competition analysis Environment Analysis Profitability Leverage Liquidity Efficiency Peer comparisons Financial analysis DCF Valuation Relative Valuation Triangulation and Football chart Valuation Conclusion & Recommendation Agenda
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Company Overview Global health and hygiene company focused on product innovation and building its personal care, consumer tissue, K-C professional & other and health care brands Founded in 1872 & headquartered in Dallas, TX Manufacturing facilities in 35 countries Nearly 53,000 employees Well known global brand that has consumers in more than 150 countries worldwide - Over 1/4 th of the world’s population uses K-C’s brand everyday - Holds No. 1 or No. 2 positions in more than 80 countries
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Business Segments Personal Care 2008 Sales $8.3B (43% of total sales)/ Operating Profit margin 19.9% Diapers, Training/Youth/Swim Pants, Feminine Care, Incontinence Care, Infant and Child Wipes and Toiletries
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Business Segments Consumer Tissue 2008 Sales $6.7B (35% of total sales)/ Operating Profit margin 8.9% Facial Tissue, Bathroom Tissue, Paper Towels
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Business Segments K-C Professional and Other 2008 Sales $3.2B (16% of total sales)/ Operating Profit margin 13.5% Disposable Health & Hygiene Products for Away-From- Home Use: Facial Tissue, Bathroom Tissue, Paper Towels Wipers, Protective/Absorbent Products for Do-It-Yourself Use, Safety Products; Nonwovens
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Business Segments Health Care 2008 Sales $8.3B (6% of total sales)/ Operating Profit margin 19.9% Surgical Drapes and Gowns, Sterilization Wrap, Face Masks Exam and Surgical Gloves, Respiratory and Other Disposable Medical Devices
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Growth Strategies Targeting Growth Investments Translating customer, shopper, and user insights into innovative product solutions Partnering with customers Leveraging strong global brands, market share leadership and strategic marketing capabilities Implementing strategic cost reductions Using a systematic approach to reduce costs on an ongoing basis
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Management Assessment Adopted Global Business Plan (GBP) in 2003 to prioritize growth opportunities and applying greater financial discipline to K-C’s global operations. Annual GBP Objective2004 – 2008 Average Top-line Growth3-5%7% EPS GrowthMid-to-high single digits5% Operating Margin Improvement 40 to 50 basis points- 70 basis points Capital Spending5-6% of net sales5% ROIC Improvement40 to 50 basis points10 basis points Dividend Increases High-single digit to low-double digits 11%
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Management Assessment Continuous effort to be remain focused on reducing costs, improving margins and maximizing cash flow Maintained a solid financial position throughout the economic downturn Strengthened its position in developing and emerging markets
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Macroeconomic Analysis Unfavorable global environment – Current credit market disruptions and recession s in the US and certain foreign countries – Volatility in foreign currency – Increased pricing pressure and intense competition for sales Significant increases in prices for raw materials, energy, and transportation and other necessary supplies – Large swings of main raw material; Kraft pulp and petroleum based commodities (Derivatives are not used to mitigate these risk)
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CME Northern Softwood Pulp Index
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SWOT Analysis Strengths Strong brand recognition Diversified business portfolio Resistant to economic cycles Weaknesses Dependency on commodities High dependence upon a single large customer Opportunities Expansion in emerging markets New acquisitions and alliances Increasing preference for organic and personal care products Threats Intense competition Commodity costs inflation Currency volatility
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Competition Competitors vary in size Highly competitive industry Few pure players in the industry New emerging “no-name" brands Competitors – Procter & Gamble Co. – Georgia-Pacific – Johnson & Johnson
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Keys for competition Brand loyalty Product quality Innovation Price Marketing strategies
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Five-year stock price
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Financial Position Analysis Profitability
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Financial Position Analysis Profitability
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Financial Position Analysis Profitability
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Financial Position Analysis Profitability
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Financial Position Analysis Company Structure/Leverage
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Financial Position Analysis Accelerated Stock repurchase plan – From July 2007 to March 2008 – 29.6 million shares of common stock from BOA – $2.1 billion long-term notes
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Financial Position Analysis Boost the EPS by reducing the shares
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Financial Position Analysis Debt Structure
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Financial Position Analysis Liquidity
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Financial Position Analysis Efficiency
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Financial Position Analysis Efficiency
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Financial Position Analysis Efficiency
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Peer Comparison
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Assumptions: Methodologies Hybrid Assumptions Segmental Perspective Incorporated Management Assessment Subjective Adjustment to Discount Rate
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Pro Forma Assumptions Segmental Revenue Growth200920102011 to 2014 Personal Care0%4%8.0% Consumer Tissue0%2.50%4.5% Business-to-Business0%1.50%3.0% Health Care and Other0%1%2.0% Other Assumptions Gross Margin32%His. Ave32.3% R&D % of Sales2%His. Ave1.8% Advertising Expenses % of Sales3%His. Ave2.6% Interest Rate6.5% CAPEX % of Sales5.5%
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DCF Valuation For the Fiscal Period Ending Dec-31-2008Forecasted 2009E Forecasted 2010E Forecasted 2011E Forecasted 2012E Forecasted 2013E Forecasted 2014E Currency USD Net Income1,690.001,806.361,898.742,020.962,169.492,330.932,477.63 +Depreciation and Amortization775.00948.96980.171,035.071,093.501,155.741,200.33 -Capital Expenditure(906.00)(1,067.99)(1,103.12)(1,164.90)(1,230.67)(1,300.71)(1,375.32) -Change in Net working Capital186.20(70.02)(117.35)(127.57)(136.33)(141.61) Free Cash Flow1,559.001,873.531,705.781,773.781,904.762,049.632,161.04 Terminal Value2,130.8031,333.28 Present Value of FCFF1,701.601,407.071,328.901,296.071,316.8318,799.93 Discount Rate: 10.10% Intrinsic Value: $50.20
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Relative Valuation Trailing P/EP/SP/BEV/EBITDA Kimberly Clark15.551.365.678.798 Johnson & Johnson13.122.763.618.698 Procter & Gamble Co.13.362.132.7210.508 Dec-31-2008Jun-30-2009 Earnings Per Share4.0373.952 Sales Per Share46.3845.29 Book Value Per Share9.2610.82 EBITDA Per Share8.128.42 Valuation MethodMinimumAverageMaximum P/E multiple52.9654453.4498853.93432 P/S multiple98.7894110.73405128.0088 P/B multiple25.187234.245333.4286 EV/EBITDA multiple70.6277680.8572685.32496
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RCMP Portfolio
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Stock Correlation within Portfolio Correlation Coefficient KMB WAG0.17 AEE0.27 MCD0.21 AEOS0.22 FR0.27 WFR0.20 SRCL0.19 JKHY0.14 DO0.23
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Current Position Bought 300 KMB shares at $63.91 on April 20, 2005 Bought 100 shares at $56.31 on Nov. 18, 2008
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Company Evaluation Management inconsistencies Stock Repurchase Plan Soaring raw material cost Not profitable to support for high dividend payout
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Recommendation Intrinsic value of the company is $50.20 Closing Price for December 7, 2009 is $65.19 We recommend to SELL 400 shares at current market price
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Sources Kimberley-Clark 2005-2008 Annual Report, 10-K http://www.kimberley-clark.com One-source database Capital-IQ Bloomberg http://finance.yahoo.com
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