1. Measuring Impact of a Cause Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

2. Definition

3. Daily Probability of Exercise

6. Probability Scale 0 Impossible 0.5 Complete uncertainty 1 For sure

7. Axioms of Probability

8. Venn Diagram

10. Probability of Exercise

11. Combination of Events

12. +-

13. Probability of both events occurring together

14. Probability of exercise in evening or morning +- A=morning exercise B=evening exercise

15. Impact of a Cause

20. Numerical Example

23. Calculation from Diary data

25. 9 days9 days 9 days9 days

26. 5 days5 days 5 days5 days 9 days9 days 9 days9 days

27. 5 days5 days 5 days5 days 9 days9 days 9 days9 days

28. Take Home Lesson Conditional Probability Measured Impact of a Cause