1. Richard Nakamura, Ph.D. May 18, 2015 Improving Quality at CSR

2. Do highest quality peer review] –Meet needs of PI and Program communities –Quality measures –Accuracy of referral –Evaluations of peer review including its fairness –Support SROs and Reviewers Conduct peer review as efficiently as possible CSR Goals

3. Success Rate Fiscal Year Grant Success Rates FY 1978 – 2014

4. AppropriationAppropriation in 1998 Dollars (In Billions) NIH Program Level in Nominal Dollars and Constant 1998 Dollars, FY1998 – FY2014

5. Number of Applications Received by Fiscal Year

6. 6 Note: Incomplete data for 2015/08 and 2015/10 Councils because applications are still coming in and meetings have not occurred Application Increase

7. Fellowship Application Trends

8. Danielle Li and Leila Agha This paper examines the success of peer-review panels in predicting the future quality of proposed research. We construct new data to track publication, citation, and patenting outcomes associated with more than 130,000 research project (R01) grants funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health from 1980 to 2008. We find that better peer-review scores are consistently associated with better research outcomes and that this relationship persists even when we include detailed controls for an investigator’s publication history, grant history, institutional affiliations, career stage, and degree types. A one–standard deviation improvement in peer-review scores among awarded grants is associated with 16% more citations, 8% more publications, 20% more high- impact publications, and 15% more follow-on patents. Science 24 April 2015: Vol. 348 no. 6233 pp. 434-438 RESEARCH FUNDING Big names or big ideas: Do peer-review panels select the best science proposals? Science April 24, 2015

9. Danielle Li and Leila Agha: Big names or big ideas: Do peer-review panels select the best science proposals? Science 24 April 2015: Vol. 348 no. 6233 pp. 434-438 Peer Review Scores Correlated with Publications and Citations

10. Residual Numbers of Publications/Citations and Peer Review Percentile Scores

11. US Science and Technology Future?

12. Israel 4.2 South Korea3.6 Finland3.5 Japan3.4 Sweden3.4 Germany2.9 Switzerland2.9 Denmark2.9 What Do these Countries Have in Common?

13. Fiscal Year National Natural Science Foundation China

14. http://data.worldbank.org/country/china

15. Comments? Questions?