1. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 1 WG/TCR Workshop Wrap-up Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress and Gaps

2. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 2 WG/TCR Snapshot analysis of all agency research efforts mapped against research needs and operational priorities –Fairly even distribution of TC research investment among agencies cover most operational priorities –Intensity/structure change #1, but very difficult –Captures >90% research in 75 IHC abstracts –Work in progress Summary

3. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 3 WG/TCR Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study Total Man-Years: 228 Total $ With Facilities: $50.2M Without Facilities: 37.7M

4. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 4 WG/TCR Areas of Concern / Gaps –Little emphasis on forecaster aids (guidance on guidance) Not just an applied research problem Needs greater emphasis in basic as well as applied Include math / probability community –Little emphasis on resolution vs. ensemble model output* Summary * First HFIP issue

5. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 5 WG/TCR Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities Intensity Change Storm Surge Observations Genesis Size/Structure Stat Aids Fcst Efficiency Track Fcst Wind Analysis Model Res vs Ensembles QPF Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs SST Gradients TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity & Structure: ~ 35%

6. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 6 WG/TCR Areas of Concern / Gaps (continued) –Continue global model improvement (NUOPC) –Major Concern / Gap Lack of inclusion of social science and associated decision-making issues related to TC research Summary

7. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 7 WG/TCR Next steps of WG/TCR –Develop set of interagency strategic objectives driven by requirements (intensity/structure, track, RI, genesis) –Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives –Document continued work of WG/TCR –Formalize executive oversight –Address major concern to address social science and decision-making issues Summary

8. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 8 WG/TCR Recommended action to address major concern –Form a new OFCM-sponsored Joint Action Group under the WG/TCR Focus and build upon key areas in Section 5.3, Appendix P, and recommendation 2.a.2 of 2007 TC R&D Plan, “Social Science Research” –Decision-making –Warning process –Behavioral response –Societal impacts Activity should address the societal / public safety aspects and build upon major concerns / needs such as: –Risk mitigation –Decision support Summary