1. Island County 2016 Periodic Comprehensive Plan Update Population Projections and Trends Presented by: Island County Planning & Community Development June 17 th, 2013

2. Island County Methodology  Tasked with selecting a population for Island County in 2036  Used the Office of Financial Management’s (OMF) medium projection as a starting point – OFMs medium series is considered the most likely projection by State demographers  Assessed the inputs of OFMs Model – Total Fertility Rates – Mortality – Migration  Made adjustments to OFMs medium projection based on local demographic trends and research

3. 2012 OFM Projection Range Source: WA State OFM

4. Total Fertility Rates  Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The measure of the total number of children born per woman in her lifetime in a given population  Variation of TFRs at the County level  Counties with a larger immigrant population tend to have higher TFRs  TFRs tend to be low in counties with a high proportion of females in their pre-retirement years  The diverse characteristics of Island County make TFR generalizations difficult for OFM  OFM projected the 2010 TFR for Island County of 2.1 out to 2040 Source: WA State OFM – Correspondence with Chief Demographer: Yi Zhao

5. Median Age: Total Population 1980-2010 Source: WA State OFM – based on 2010 US Census

6. Median Age: Female Population 1980-2010 Source: WA State OFM – based on 2010 US Census

7. Historical Population Counts Historical Population Count YearPopulation 19001,870 19104,704 19205,489 19305,369 19406,098 195011,079 196019,638 197027,011 198044,048 199060,195 200071,558 201078,506 Historical Rates of Change by Decade YearRate of Change 1900-1910 151.55% 1910-1920 16.69% 1920-1930 -2.19% 1930-1940 13.58% 1940-1950 81.68% 1950-1960 77.25% 1960-1970 37.54% 1970-1980 63.07% 1980-1990 36.66% 1990-2000 18.88% 2000-2010 9.71% Source: WA State OFM – based on decennial Census counts (rate of change calculated indepentally)

8. Annual Growth Rate: 1970 - 2010 Source: Analysis based on decennial Census counts

9. Tracking County and OFM Projections with Census Data Source: WA State OFM, 2005 Island County Comprehensive Plan, Memo from Jeff Tate dated January 11, 2002

10. Tracking County and OFM Projections with Census Data Source: WA State OFM, 2005 Island County Comprehensive Plan, Memo from Jeff Tate dated 1/11/2002

11. Migration Factors considered: Job growth in Island County Impacts of retirement growth Transportation infrastructure & ferry capacity Commute time to regional employment centers

12. Commute Times Avg. Commute Times: US = 20 minutes WA = 26 minutes Ferry connection has finite vehicle capacity Transportation costs are increasing Trends suggest people are driving less and are not willing to endure extreme commutes Whidbey planning areas are isolated from regional job centers Only Camano Island is within standard commuting distance of major job centers Planning Area (From) Employment Center* (To) MilesTime South Whidbey (Langley) Payne Field1451 min Downtown Everett 1657 min Lynnwood1958 min Seattle (UW)321 hr-13 min Seattle (Downtown) 351 hr-14 min Marysville261hr CamanoMarysville2936 min Arlington2333 min Mt. Vernon2236 min Burlington2643 min Anacortes3858 min Bayview (UGA) 3047 min North Whidbey (Oak Harbor) Bayview (UGA) 2535 min Anacortes2029 min Mt. Vernon2941 min Burlington2941 min Arlington501 hr-5 min *Snohomish & King County employment centers represent PSRC designated regional growth centers – Skagit County employment centers are the closest Skagit County UGAs to Island County Source: US Census – American Community Survey, Urban Geography: Pacione

13. 2036 Preliminary Projection *This projection is subject to change based on information from Whidbey NAS. Island County Planning is recommending a population selection of 85,387 people for 2036 This is on quartile below OFM’s medium series for 2036 (OFM’s medium series = 90,848) This represents an annual average growth rate of just under 0.4% Island County Planning intends to amend the County Wide Planning Policies to allow for UGA modification in the event of unanticipated growth

14. Annual Growth Rate Based on Island County 2036 Population Projection Source: Analysis based on decennial Census counts and the assumption of a 2036 Population of 85,387 people

15. Island County Population Projection: 2036 This image is intended to provide a rough approximation of the population trend predicted by Island County Planning & Community Development. Actual population may not follow this trend line.

16. Questions or Comments?