1. When conventional methods/Products show their limits Alkhalil Adoum FEWS NET Regional Scientist for the Sahel/West Africa AGRHYMET Regional Center, B.P. 11011, Niamey, Niger a.alkhalil@agrhymet.ne

2. Content The 2009 growing season – bad rainfall distribution in Eastern Sahel (Niger) NDVI anomaly - analysis on large areas in West Africa Indices/derivatives to address the problem Conclusion

3. Addressing the bad rainfall distribution issue – Two field visits were sent by AGRHYMET – Information collected during field visits indicated: bad rainfall distribution seriously affected crop and pasture development conditions over most of the country The result was a very heterogeneous crop condition situation Necessity for a method that takes into account pixel history such as temporal profiles MODIS NDVI good candidate due to its good resolution and stability of the signal

4. Percent of average images for each dekad & values extracted at points of field observations Profiles plotted grouped/similarities Profiles groups/Mapping of the 2009 rainfed crop productivity in Niger

5. Characterizing the 2009 growing season in Niger using MODIS NDVI profiles

6. Corresponding photographs: points # 12 At Point # 12 : very green but too late into the season.# 12

7. Corresponding photographs: points # 22 At Point # 22 : very green but too late into the season. These heads were still baring flowers and given dryness due to the end of the season fertilization will abort.# 22

8. Characterizing the 2009 growing season in Niger using MODIS NDVI

9. Characterization the 2009 growing season in Niger using MODIS NDVI

10. Concluding remarks The product very well reflected field conditions It does not miss the bad and the good but it is hard to make a good judgment around the mean The process is too lengthy for operational purposes A tool might exist to get the profile based classification performed more quickly

11. VCI vs Anomaly The classic anomaly very good and useful for many applications VCI is better to reflect local ecosystem productivity

12. Number of dekads out of 10 (1st dekad of June to first dekad of September) when VCI <=20% 1. Good only for the Sahel because of cloud contamination further south 2. Experimental but very consistent with areas where dryness problems are being or have been reported at one point in the season