1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

2. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Global Climate Change: How We Got Here, and What Do We Do Now? Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Natural Resource Ecology and Management 120 Iowa State University 21 April 2008 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

3. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Outline  Scientific basis for climate change  Why we are confident that the that humans are responsible for a large measure of the current warming  What do we do now? –What should you do? –What should ISU do? CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

4. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

5. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

6. IPCC Third Assessment Report

7. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY 2007 380 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

8. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY 2050 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

9. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

10. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature ?

11. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

12. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

20. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

21. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m 2 in 2018

23. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

24. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

25. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

26. Natural cycles

27. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

28. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

29. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving

30. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption

31. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

32. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

34. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W- 125 W) R. Seager, et al., 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

35. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

36. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models

37. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models

38. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models

39. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005

41. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 2007

42. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 2007

43. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 2007

44. Sunset over the Arctic. (Credit: Jeremy Harbeck)

45. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More (~10%) precipitation (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high) –More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) –Higher episodic streamflow (medium) –Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

46. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now

47. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  Mitigation –Become active politically  National level - examine candidate platforms  Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions –Examine personal choices  Home energy use  Auto type and use  Purchase of “stuff”

48. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  Mitigation –Become active politically  National level - examine candidate platforms  Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions –Examine personal choices  Home energy use  Auto type and use  Purchase of “stuff”  Adaptation –Stay informed of the best science on climate change for the Midwest –Encourage public and private investment in sustainable and resilient practices and infrastructure

49. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  Mitigation –Become active politically  National level - examine candidate platforms  Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions –Examine personal choices  Home energy use  Auto type and use  Purchase of “stuff”  Adaptation –Stay informed of the best science on climate change for the Midwest –Encourage public and private investment in sustainable and resilient practices and infrastructure  Consider preparing for a career relating to problems of climate change

50. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA) CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

51. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

52. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Participants Lead agency: NSF, with contributions from NOAA and DOE  R. Arritt, D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa State University, USA  R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK  D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada  D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA  F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy  I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA  R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA  L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes, NCAR, USA  A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA  S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA  L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

53. NARCCAP Plan A2 Emissions Scenario GFDLCCSM HADAM3 link to EU programs CGCM3 1960-1990 current 2040-2070 future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ PNNL Reanalyzed climate, 1979-2000

54. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

55. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY ISU Climate Science Initiative  Launched by Vice President Brighton  Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken leadership, but broad campus research participation will be emphasized  Build on research strengths in regional climate modeling, agriculture, water, landscapes, engineering CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

56. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY How Will New Trends and Variability of Regional Climate Change Affect  Crop & horticulture production  Soil erosion  Conservation practices  Water supplies  Streamflow  Water quality  Beef and pork daily gains  Livestock breeding success  Milk and egg production  Crop and livestock pests and pathogens  Agricultural tile drainage systems  Natural ecosystem species distributions  Human health  Building designs  Recreation opportunities  River navigation  Roads and bridges Who will provide authoritative information? How will it be delivered? CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

57. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY What To Do Now  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  ISU Climate Science Initiative  Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

58. Proposed new Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

59. CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY Summary  Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural variations over the last 400,000 years  Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years  Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century  Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years  Iowa State has the capacity to build on its strengths and provide authoritative information on climate change and climate variability for decision-makers CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY