1. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 1 2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions March 25, 2014

2. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 2 Outline  Load data for reliability analysis  DC tie dispatch  Wind dispatch used in reliability cases  Next steps

3. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 3 Load data for reliability analysis  Obtained SSWG load data by weather zone for years 2015 through 2020 (DSB summer peak case as posted on 3 rd March, 2014)  Determined the ERCOT 90 th percentile load with self- served load with no losses  Per the RTP scope, the RTP cases will be using the higher of the ERCOT 90 th percentile or SSWG load forecasts for each weather zone

4. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 4 Load data summary

5. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 5 Load data for 2014 RTP cases Note: Numbers in red font represent values from ERCOT 90 th percentile forecast

6. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 6 DC tie dispatch  Historical DC tie import data for the summer months of 2010 through 2013 were analyzed  Laredo, Railroad and Eagle Pass DC ties are exporting at full capacity  East and North DC ties are importing at full capacity

7. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 7 Wind dispatch for reliability analysis  Current RTP scope sets the coastal wind at 10% and all other wind dispatch at zero.  ERCOT analyzed historical wind profiles from 2004 through 2011.  Average wind output as a percent of capacity was determined using 95 th percentile ERCOT load  The uncertainty in wind availability was modeled by plotting the average output by wind zone for varying level of confidence.

8. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 8 Wind dispatch for reliability analysis

9. ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/2014 9 Next steps Case conditioning Initial start cases, contingency list and list of overloads ready N-1 SCOPF analysis G-1 screening followed by G-1+N-1 analysis A-1 screening followed by A-1+N-1 analysis Reliability analysis complete with all reliability issues resolved Economic analysis case preparation Economic analysis Prepare the final RTP report