1. Joseph Maina & David Obura spatial data for ecosystems vulnerability assessments

2. Relevance of ocean variables to ecosystems Data and sources Application: preliminary analysis Limitations and uncertainties Talk outline

3. Temperaturecoral reefs PAR (400-700nm)photochemical damage; rates of photosynthesis UV (290-400nm) high photochemical damage; decreased photosynthetic performance; altered community structure Surface currents cooling effect and upwelling; high water flow also creates a narrow environment for acclimation making corals in those high mixing places sensitive and less resistant; propagule dispersal Wind velocitywater mixing; primary effect of influencing the air-water interface Chlorophyll concentration absorption and scattering agent; water quality indicator; measure of productivity Topography sea level rise, sedimentation Relevance of ocean variables to ecosystem

4. Data ProductSatellite/Sensor Spatial Resolution Time Scale Sea surface Temperature ( o C) NOAA AVHRR~4 kmMonthly; 1985-2007 MODIS4 kmMonthly : 2002-2007 Chlorophyll a (mg/l) SeaWiFS~9 kmMonthly; 1997-2007 MODIS4kmMonthly : 2002-2007 PAR (Einstein/m 2 /day) SeaWiFS ~9 km Monthly; 1997-2007 Ocean current (m/s) OSCAR: TOPEX/Pseidon;JASON; QuikSCAT 1 o x 1 o Monthly; 1992-2007 Wind speed (m/s) SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) 0.25 o x 0.25 o Weekly; 1997 to 2007

5. Data ProductSatellite/Sensor Spatial Resolution Time Scale UV irradiance (Milliwatts/m 2 /nm ) TOMS1 o x 1 o Daily; 1996 to 2007 Digital elevation model (DEM)SRTM (RADAR)90 mUpdated in 2002 Coastal BathymetrySeaWiFS1km Climate models outputs - diverse set of scenarios WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database 150 kmVaries

6. Data: examples DEM & bathymetry Climate model data Wind velocity NOAA SST PAR UV OSCAR Model

7. Satellite-in situ comparison Unpublished in situ data by Dr.Tim McClanahan, WCS; MOI Unpublished in situ data by coelecanth program (oC)(oC)

8. Historical conditions - adaptation and acclimation concepts Real time data – present & future conditions; opendap & http servers Projected data - predicting future events -climate model data has filtering effect and therefore the true variability is not reflected Relevance of ocean variables to ecosystem

9. Historical data against the observed bleaching Maina et al., in press

10. Application – preliminary analysis eco-climatic zones around Madagascar Principal component analysis of environmental layers Cluster analysis of long term mean layer

11. Cluster analysis based on 264 SST monthly means (1985- 2006)

12. Vulnerability assessments Application – preliminary analysis Coral reefs Mangroves

13. Methods: GIS fuzzy logic technique

14. VariablesMinMaxMeanSDabcd Historical mean SST21.528.424.92.0 SST variability3.510.16.91.0 3.510.16.91.0 Projected SST24.030.528.01.6 Chlorophyll0.17.11.91.3 SST rate of rise (projected)0.50.6 0.0 Wind speed3.410.67.11.6 PAR38.250.745.32.8 UV181.5302.3248.330.1 Methods: Fuzzy logic technique

15. Selected PC’sIIIIIIIVVVIVII Contribution ratio (%) Cumulative contribution (%) Integration of parameters - SPCA Variance-covariance matrix

16. Susceptibility estimates

17. Vulnerability assessments: Coral reefs Mangroves

18. - the end - thank you