1. CHPS-XEFS Ensemble Pre- Processing (EPP) Update Prepared by DJ Seo Feb 23, 2009 1

2. Purpose of the call A number of decisions have been made in the CHPS- XEFS workshop in Jan, 2009, that may influence ongoing activities and near-term plans at –EPP2 RFCs (AB-, MARFCs) –MMEFS RFCs (MA-, NE- and OHRFCs) –Prospective MMEFS RFC(s) (SERFC) Provide an update on EPP in the CHPS-XEFS implementation plan Present analysis of GEFS forecasts –Some verification results –Prototype bias correction technique (James Brown) 2

3. Purpose of the call (cont.) Discussion –Overarching goal is to realize a flexible and smart EPP that can input all available “informative” forecasts and, through science algorithms and forecaster input and control, output the “most skillful” ensemble forcing forecasts cost-effectively Presents needs and opportunities for closer and structured collaborations among RFCs, OHD and NCEP –Availability, acquisition, processing and analysis of archive of GEFS, SREF and other precipitation and temperature forecasts –Comparative verification with EPP ensembles –Hydrologic verification –Possible joint development of EPP components (“Other Ensembles”, “Merging, Joining & Blending”) –Anything else 3

5. IFP OFS Raw flow ens. Pp’ed flow ens. Ensemble Verification System Flow Data Product Generation Subsystem Ensemble verification products Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster Ens. User Interface EPP User Interface Ens. Pre- Processor Atmospheric forcing data Ensemble/ prob. products Ens. Post- Proc. Ens. Streamflow Prediction System HMOS Ensemble Processor MODs EPP3ESP2EnsPostEPG EVS Hydro- meteorol. ensembles XEFS Graphical User Interface Web Inter- face

6. 6 RFC Subsystem GFS Subsystem ENS PRE EPP3 – Existing components

7. 7 Short- Range Medium- Range Long- Range Merging, Joining & Blending EPP3 – Proposed components Other Ensembles

8. Linking CHPS and XEFS 1)XEFS components that are important for operational forecasting CHPS EnsPre (BOC) ESP (BOC) EnsPost (BOC) EPP3, HMOS, EnsPost-XEFS (XEFS) EPG (XEFS) 8

9. EPP3 Calibration Component For calibrating EPP, use is made of different files that may vary from RFC to RFC. 95% of calibrating EPP is getting the data in the right place. After the calibration, the new parameters can be used to produce an ensemble hindcast with the EPP-hindcaster. The EPP hindcasts are in datacard file format. CHPS must be able to import these EPP datacard files to be able to run the hydrology in ensemble mode afterwards. The calibration of EPP will not be wrapped for linking it with FEWS for the time being. The hindcasting capability is available within CHPS-FEWS when EPP is wrapped and working, and also outside CHPS- FEWS with the EPP-hindcaster. 9

10. EPP3 Timelines - Real-Time Component Mar 1, 2009 - Produce (and freeze) EPP3 Version 1 –Integrates EPP2 and the GFS Subsystem –Newly adds the climate ensemble component that utilizes the CFS forecast May 1, 2009 – EPP3 Adapter ready (may undergo additional development to allows MODs) May-July, 2009 – Test EPP3 Jul 1, 2009 - Investigate the application of MODS interface to allow a user to specify non-standard control file options at run time 10

11. EPP3 Adapter 11 PI-XML MAT&MAP PI-XML FMAP & FMAT & CPC GFS CFS EPP3 Ensemble PI-XML FMAP & FMAT From FEWS (non static) To FEWS (non static) GA run on FFS qptf_param static data From FEWS (non static) Pobs06, pfcst06 Data ingester, model adapter

12. EPP3 Timelines - Calibration Component Feb 2009 – Converters ready Mar 2009 – Test importing hindcasts into FEWS 12

13. From Brown (2008) with help from Yuejian Zhu 13 GEFS 12-hr precipitation forecasts from 2000-2005 (no seasonal stratification)

24. Ivan Ivan (09/18/04) Frances (09/09/04)

34. 34 Source: Ebert (2005)

45. 45 Reliability Diagrams identifies conditional bias Reliability P[O|F] Does the frequency of occurrence match your probability statement? Relative frequency of observations Forecasted probability Forecast Reliability Source: Hartmann (2006)

56. EPP2 24-hr precipitation hindcasts for Oct 2002-Jul 2008 From Wu (2008) 56

60. Ivan (09/18/04) Frances (09/09/04)

70. End of slides 70