1. What influences climate change adaptation perspectives of North Shore community members? Observed & Future Changes “One of the things that is pretty clear and we already are seeing some examples of it are the die off of certain kinds of tree species. I don’t know that it’s clear that some of this is because of climate change, but damage to the birch forest in the North Shore is one.” “Everybody asks, what’s up with the birch trees? Everybody asks that. They see it... the trees are dying because the climate’s changing and [because] there’s stress in their lives. And guess what? There’s more change coming in the North. Whether we want it or not, right now.” “It’s a small thing but take the moose, you know the moose population has dropped, considerably in the last five years. Why? Is it climate? Is it climate change? I don’t know, but moose are really important resource to our community; tourists love moose. I mean it’s a small thing but it’s one of those, is that climate change? If it is then I’m concerned.” “I think it’s something again to be concerned about because if climate change is causing, say for instance causing more windstorms, more drought, more fires, or just fluctuating the temperatures during certain times of years that’s certainly going to have an impact on the opportunities we can provide for folks. If we have these winters where they’re just cold winters without snow, well then we don’t have skiers, we don’t have snowmobilers. And if numbers keep dropping then we have to cut the services we can provide for them so we may never get those things back.” “I think the [tourism]... may shift. You might see more bikers, you might see more people coming up to swim, [or] to camp more. So who knows it could be a tossup. I think we’re just going to have to see.” Climate Change Adaptation Perspectives in Tourism-Dependent Communities on Lake Superior’s North Shore Karen Katz Research Assistant & Graduate Student University of Minnesota Mae Davenport, Ph.D. Associate Professor Director, Center for Changing Landscapes University of Minnesota Erin Seekamp, Ph.D. Associate Professor North Carolina State University Responsibility “Nobody sees that that’s in their mission... Not in their mission to talk about mitigation... the people see it as a global problem... so... I don’t have to do, what can I do... but we all have to do something.” “I guess I’m not as into climate change as some, I don’t concern myself with that.” “I’m not concerned about it. Globally, I’m not concerned about it. There’s good practices that are in place, that I think are moving forward, that’s going to help mitigate and remedy some of that. But I’m not a scientist.” 25 Key Informant Interviews 3 Focus Groups Many participants identified with more than one category; this graph represents their primary role as identified in the interview. We used a grounded theory approach to understand climate readiness on the North Shore (Charmaz, 2006). We used a semi- structured interview guide to collect a range of perspectives regarding climate readiness in the North Shore nature based recreation and tourism community on the North Shore of Minnesota. The majority of results displayed here are from the interviews with some data included from the focus groups. North Shore community members’ perspectives: Who did we talk to? 1)8 Natural resource managers 2)8 Business owners and tourism professionals 3)10 Local elected officials Climate Change Belief “There are a lot of people in Northeastern Minnesota that are on the two sides of the fence on [climate change], and I don’t think that it is very useful to be on the side that is saying that it’s not happening. It is pretty clear to me that something is changing, and that we need to react to it.” Competing Priorities “I guess I can’t really answer that. I’m not close enough to those kinds of issues... There is a lot of natural resource and climate issues that seem a little bit ill-defined right now... In terms of my skill-set, there are more pressing issues for my time.” “Yeah, I mean, climate change is huge, but there are other things maybe even more compelling to me... I’m concerned, but when I talk with my... colleagues, climate change is huge, but... There are other things that are pretty serious stuff as well.” I’m not concerned. I just think what’s going to happen is going to happen. Scale of Problem & Powerlessness “I know there are people in the community that are otherwise talking about it but you kind of feel like as a private citizen, what can I do? I think it is harder that way, to me.” “I have no concerns that climate change is happening. Regionally, I just don’t think it’s worth worrying about. Globally, there are so many factors at play, that again, it’s just one of those issues that is just not worth worrying about.” Uncertainty “It’s hard to understand for a five year period what climate change is responsible for in terms of recent weather. I would like to have more data and information on the projections of climate change.” “It creates a level of uncertainty that makes you nervous. You still have to make a decision to try to build new boundaries with the issues. You either build it or you don’t build it.... The climate change data is supposed to inform you.” “I want to stop climate change because the planet is an issue. The reality is that it’s changing, but the question is that we don’t know how it will affect us. I’m sure that there will be detrimental things.... So how will it affect us directly, I don’t know. No one knows. It does bring uncertainty to a greater level.” Works Cited Charmaz, K. (2006). Constructing Grounded Theory: a Practice Guide through Qualitative Analysis. London: Sage. Davidson-Peterson Associates. (2008). The Economic Impact of Expenditures by Travelers on Minnesota’s Northeast Region and the Profile of Travelers June 2007-May 2008. Kennebunk, ME: Explore Minnesota Tourism. From http://www.tourism.umn.edu Acknowledgements Funding: Minnesota Sea Grant, North Carolina State University, & University of Minnesota; Collaborator: Carleton College; Partner: MN Department of Natural Resources; Research Assistants: J. Sheppard, B. Duever, J. Yanish, A. Weeldreyer, S. Fellows, & A. Felix Contact Information Karen Katz: katzx096@umn.edu Mae Davenport: mdaven@umn.edu Our project area includes the region highlighted in yellow on the map (right). We considered the North Shore to include the tourism dependent areas north of Two Harbors. We asked participants to define their community. While our project looks at the North Shore as a region, many participants have more local definitions of community. This perspective of community is important because it may influence how individuals collaborate on North Shore region-wide projects and how members communicate about climate change. Responsibility Uncertainty Level of Concern Scale of Problem & Powerlessness Observed Changes & Future Changes Perceived Rate of Change Resilience & Adaptability How did we define the North Shore for this project? Why is this project relevant? Climate Change Belief Competing Priorities “This was the first year where I actually felt fear from climate change... It could literally put this place out of business... Am I setting my kids up for this really bad experience, trying to keep up with this family tradition... [to] just have it blown away by one big wind storm?... It’s scary. So, we need to get cracking.” Resilience & Adaptability “We’ll deal with it. We’ll evolve. I’m not too worried about it... the last 20 years there’s been multiple changes, where things happen and we’re quite resourceful up here, and we’ll just figure out a different way to market it.” “I do think that human beings are very adaptable and they can change really fast... when they see that it is in their self- interest. I think that is a positive on climate change.” Adaptation Perspective The North Shore recreation and tourism industry makes up a substantial portion of the regions’ economy (Davidson-Peterson Associate, 2008). Climate change is expected to impact the region through more frequent and severe storm events, more extreme temperatures, decreased snow depth and ice thickness, changing forest types, increased threats of wildfire, and lower lake levels and warmer lake temperatures. These changes to outdoor conditions will likely alter the recreational experience on the North Shore and the recreation and tourism industry will need to respond. Throughout the course of this project, we have engaged the community in conversation through interviews, focus groups, and a project advisory team. We will deliver our results back to the community in a set of workshops. Our research findings will aid community members in planning for regional collaboration, adaptation strategies, and climate change outreach in their communities.