1. PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess Co-Director Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635 burgess@colorado.edu burgess@colorado.edu Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

2. Readings, Reflections

3. Project Topic

4. MOOS Supplemental Materials Blog

5. The New Beyond Intractability

10. The Specter for a Shia/Sunni War

11. The Iranian / Saudi War http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/11/what-would-a-saudi-iran-war-look-like-dont-look-now-but-it-is-already-here/

12. Internal Divisions http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/09/02/whats-the-greatest-threat-to-us-national-security/the-biggest- threat-to-the-us-are-internal-divisions-11

13. Brooks / Cruz http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/12/opinion/the-brutalism-of-ted-cruz.html

14. Brooks Reaction https://www.washingtonpost.com/ news/morning- mix/wp/2016/01/14/david- brookss-choice-words-on-cruz- satanic-pagan-draw-fire-and-a- little-brimstone

15. Trump http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/opinion/campaign-stops/why-i-will-never-vote-for-donald- trump.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

16. Uninformed / Misinformed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-appear-to-be-misinformed-not-uninformed/

17. Right Wing Populism http://billmoyers.com/story/dont-let-trump-fool-you-right-wing-populism-is-the-new-normal/

18. Is This the Beginning of Fascism? http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/09/opinions/bergen-is-trump-fascist/index.html

19. Revolt of the Anxious Class http://robertreich.org/post/135202830270

20. The Discarded Middle Class Problem http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2015/01/01/recent-history-in-one-chart

21. Stable Hierarchical Society

22. Developing World New Opportunities Communism

23. Developed World Unneeded Workers Facism

24. Today’s Focus Planning Conference Exercise

25. Destructive Conflict: A “Climate Change-class” Problem

26. Open Letter

27. Possible Alliance Project

28. Open Public Conference Destructive Conflict: As Big a Threat as “Climate Change”

29. Private Planning Conference “Off-the-Grid” Conference Center

30. Questions to Consider  Are poor conflict handling skills really a global warming-class problem?  Who should be involved? Names? Perspectives? Strategies?  What are the big trends that the Conference should consider?  Positive trends to encourage?  Negative trends to limit?  What are the formal and informal decision points leading to those trends that need to be examined for problematic conflict dynamics.  What strategies should be considered for limiting problematic dynamics?

31. A Few Things You Might Want to Consider

32. Killed Wounded Refugees Survivors Destruction Expenditures Threat #1: Violence

33. Threat #2: Political Tyranny Divide and Conquer

34. Threat #3: Failed Revolutions The Exchange of Elites Problem Need Consensus on Post- Revolutionary Govt.

35. Threat #4: Economic Tyranny / Plutocracy The Robber Barons Late 19 th Century The.01% of the 1% The Robber Barons Early 21 st Century Soft Tyranny

36. Threat #5: Failed & Fragile States Social – Demographic pressures – Refugee movement – Human flight – Vengeance seeking Economic – Group-based inequality – Economic decline Political – Delegitimization of the state – Deterioration of public services – Out of control security apparatus – Widespread violations of human rights – Outside intervention http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/ 24/2013_failed_states_interactive_map?utm_ source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaig n=the-2013-failed-states-index-interactive- map-and-rankings

37. Threat #6: “Perfect Storm” Conflicts

38. Threat #7: Failed Problem-Solving Also, Unemployment Infectious Disease Crime …

39. “Second Order” Conflict Problems Underlying These Threats …

40. … and (if we work harder at them) Conflict Solutions

41. Political “Gridlock”

42. Political Polarization http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2014/12/PP-2014-06-12-polarization-0-05.png

43. The New Class Conflict

44. Higher Order Moore’s Law http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/opinion/sunday/fri edman-if-i-had-a-hammer.html

45. Cultural Lag W. F. Ogburn

46. Groups Row 1 Row 2 Row 3 Row 4 Row 3 Row 4 21 4 3 Take, Share E-Notes

47. Questions to Consider  Are poor conflict handling skills really a global warming-class problem?  Who should be involved? Names? Perspectives? Strategies?  What are the big trends that the Conference should consider?  Positive trends to encourage?  Negative trends to limit?  What are the formal and informal decision points leading to those trends that need to be examined for problematic conflict dynamics.  What strategies should be considered for limiting problematic dynamics?

48. Questions to Consider  Are poor conflict handling skills really a global warming-class problem?  Who should be involved? Names? Perspectives? Strategies?  What are the big trends that the Conference should consider?  Positive trends to encourage?  Negative trends to limit?  What are the formal and informal decision points leading to those trends that need to be examined for problematic conflict dynamics.  What strategies should be considered for limiting problematic dynamics?