1. This Year (2014) So Far/ A Look Ahead John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas john.lewis@noaa.gov

2. The Year 2014 It has been very cool and somewhat dry so far in 2014 (through November), with limited severe weather. We had a very tame summer, with well below normal temperatures and periodic rain. We are transitioning from neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific to a weak El Niño (warmer than normal water).

3. Temperatures 2014 (Through November) 3 rd coolest/118 th warmest year through November (since 1895).

4. Temperatures 2014 (Through November)

5. 67 th driest/54 th wettest year through November (since 1895). Precipitation 2014 (Through November)

6. Precipitation 2014 (Through November)

7. Precipitation 2014 (Through November)

8. Arkansas Drought December 9, 2014

9. U.S. Drought December 9, 2014

10. Temperatures 2014 (Mild Summer)

11. Summers 2010-2014

12. Severe Weather 2014 Most active days: April 27 th (5 tornadoes) and October 13 th (7 tornadoes).

13. On April 27 th, a huge tornado tracked 41 miles through Mayflower and Vilonia (both in Faulkner County), and was rated EF4 (166-200 mph winds). Severe Weather 2014

14. Severe Weather 2014 Rotation was intense at 738 pm CDT on the 27 th. At this time, the tornado was between Mayflower and Vilonia (both in Faulkner County).

15. Other Big Events 2014 Up to 10 inches of rain fell during the early morning hours of June 29 th from Augusta (Woodruff County) to West Memphis (Crittenden County).

16. Other Big Events 2014 Thousands of acres of farmland were were flooded. Federal disaster declarations were made in ten (10) eastern Arkansas counties.

17. Other Big Events 2014 Hailstorms in northeast Arkansas damaged at least 25,000 acres of cotton in Craighead and Mississippi Counties on October 7 th.

18. ENSO Through the Start of 2015

19. The Tropics Given El Niño conditions, shear increases over the Atlantic Ocean, and this makes the tropics less active. In 2014, there were 8 named storms. Average 12 6 2 Latest System: Hanna (Tropical Storm)

20. The West Coast

21. El Niño Winter Temperatures

22. The Transition Neutral to El Niño From the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)… “Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year.”

23. El Niño Winter Precipitation

24. Official Outlook Precipitation (Winter, 2014/2015)

25. Official Outlook Temperatures (Winter, 2014/2015)

26. Temperature El Niño in Arkansas

27. Precipitation

28. Latest Trends Temperature

29. Latest Trends Temperature

30. Latest Trends Precipitation

31. Latest Trends Precipitation

32. U.S. Drought Outlook Through January, 2015

33. El Niño Spring Precipitation This year is similar to 2004/2005 (going from long term neutral to weak El Niño).

34. On the Web There is much more information on the National Weather Service Little Rock website at this address… http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk or Google… National Weather Service Little Rock

35. On the Web

36. The End Thanks for coming!