1. Portfolio Committee on Basic Education 03 February 2010 Dr Mafu S Rakometsi

2. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE NSC RESULTS? Prof. John Volmink - Chairperson of Umalusi

3. The Class of 2009  Second cohort of candidates to write the new National Senior Certificate (NSC)  Completely new qualification based on the National Curriculum Statement  The NSC replaces the Senior Certificate which was written at the end of 2007 and which will finally be phased out in 2011  Some 552 073 sat for the NSC (620 192 enrolled including repeater candidates)  Approximately 60,25% of all those who have written have met the requirements of a pass

4.  The NSC differs from the previous Senior Certificate both in structure as well as in grading  A critical feature of the Senior Certificate was that what determined a pass or fail was based on the aggregate score  The NSC determines a pass or fail by 40% in at least three subjects and 30% in three others  Not completely appropriate to compare overall results between the two qualifications Comparing the NSC with that of previous years

5.  The number of candidates passing  The quality of the results  The standardisation of the exam  The predicative quality of the exam for performance at HE level Some criteria for comparison

6.  Massification is a natural outcome of an education system that is non-racist, non-sexist and democratic  It is the clear that there has been a steady increase over the last decade in the number of learners who enrolled for and wrote the Senior Certificate  It is also significant that almost 66 000 of the Class of 2009 did not pass because they narrowly missed the pass mark in one or two subjects  They qualify to write supplementary examinations and if half of these candidates pass, the final pass mark may go beyond the 67% mark  The underlying philosophy of the NCS had been designed to ensure that most people achieve the minimum requirement for a pass The number of candidates passing

7. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates Passes NumberChange in number (%) NumberChange in passes (%) 1995 531 453 7 283 742 1996 518 032 -3 278 958 -2 1997555 267 7 261 400 -6 1998552 384 272 488 4 1999511 159 -7 249 831 -8 2000489 941 -4 283 294 13 2001449 371 -8 277 206 -2 2002471 309 5 324 752 17 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 The number of candidates passing : Trends in senior certificate enrolment and passes

8. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates Passes NumberChange in number (%) NumberChange in passes (%) 2002471 309 5 324 752 17 2003440 267 -7 322 492 2004467 985 6 330 717 3 2005508 363 9 347 184 5 2006528 525 4 351 503 1 2007564 775 7 368 217 5 2008533 561 -6 333 604 -9 2009552 073 3.5 334718 0.33 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 The number of candidates passing : Trends in senior certificate enrolment and passes

9.  Concerns about quality has become a thorny issue and the subject of much debate albeit uninformed at most times.  SA public uses the matric results as the main indicators of quality of the education system and so there is an understandable concern about what these new results of a new qualification is saying about the current state of education  It is important however that we interrogate some of our assumptions that inform our beliefs about standards and quality The quality of the results

10.  The first assumption is that “more means less” or “more means worse” Stellenbosch University Website: “In the light of phasing out of matriculation exemption and of the distinction between subjects on the higher and standard grade, a significant number of learners will probably qualify for basic admission to university on the basis of their subject combination…..The implication is that many more learners may be able to apply for admission to Stellenbosch University. ……. With this background, it becomes clear why it is necessary for the University to have its own measure to interpret the meaning and value of the new NSC and also to generate additional information in order to make finer distinctions.” Assumptions that affect our perceptions Assumption 1

11.  Another assumption is that we now use vastly different methods of standardising the results  Responsibility for matriculation results has changed hands:  JMB (1918 - 1992)  SAFCERT (1992 – 2001)  Umalusi (2002 – to date)  The one constant has been the standardisation process used for the examinations.  This is crucial to:  Obtain equivalence of the standard of the SCE  Across years, subjects and examination authorities  It is also necessary in order to deliver a relatively constant product to the HE sector and to the workplace Assumption 2: Trustworthiness The standardisation of the exam

12. There is an assumption that we are at a much worse place today than in 1995

13. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 Senior Certificate examination results

14.  Another assumption is that the NCS is of a lower standard than the previous curriculum.  Research completed by Umalusi into the standard of the NCS curriculum confirms that in most cases the NCS presents a greater cognitive challenge  The NCS also represents modern, updated and more demanding versions of previous subjects Umalusi’s research on comparisons of NSC with NATED 550

15.  It needs to be said however that the National Curriculum Statement represents different sets of standards for all  Not only does it reflect the new values embedded in the Constitution but also aims to develop learners who can respond to the growth and development of knowledge and technology and the demands of the 21st century The NCS philosophy

16.  Nationally set curriculum  Internationally benchmarked  Modern and relevant: 21st Century skills  Reflect the progressive values of the constitution  Focus on Africa and South Africa What is the NCS?

17. The design of the NCS CONSTITUTION = soil in which the Fundamental Values are grounded 10 FUNDAMENTAL VALUES = roots of the tree COs and DOs = trunk of the tree LOs = branches of the tree ASs = leaves of the tree

18.  Social transformation  Outcomes-based education  High knowledge and skills  Integration and applied competence  Progression  Articulation and portability  Human rights, inclusivity, environmental and social justice  Valuing indigenous knowledge systems  Credibility, quality and efficiency Nine principles of the NCS PRINCIPLES = nutrients that feed the tree

19.  Solve problems  Work with others  Manage self  Communicate early  Use science and technology  Understand world as a set of related systems  Strategies to learn  Citizenship  Cultural and aesthetic sensitivity  Education and career opportunities  Entrepreneurial opportunities Five critical and seven developmental outcomes

20. Can HE Trust the NSC Results?

21. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 YearNo. of Candidates PassesUniversity Exemption NumberRate (%)NumberRate (%) 1994495 408287 3435888 49718 1995531 453283 7425378 82115 1996518 032278 9585479 76815 1997555 267261 4004769 00712 1998552 384272 4884969 85613 1999511 159249 8314963 72512 2000489 941283 2945868 62614 2001449 371277 2066267 70715 2002471 309324 7526975 04816 2003440 267322 4927382 01019 2004467 985330 7177185 11718 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 Senior Certificate examination results and HE

22. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 YearNo. of Candidates PassesUniversity Exemption NumberRate (%)NumberRate (%) 2004467 985330 7177185 11718 2005508 363347 1846886 53117 2006528 525351 5036685 83016 2007564 775368 21765 85 454 15 2008533 561333 60463 107 642 20 2009552 073334 71860 109 697 20 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 Senior Certificate examination results and HE

23. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates University Exemption NumberChange in number (%) NumberChange in exemptions (%) 1995 531 453 7 78 821 -11 1996 518 032 -3 79 768 1 1997555 267 7 69 007 -13 1998552 384 69 856 1 1999511 159 -7 63 725 -9 2000489 941 -4 68 626 8 2001449 371 -8 67 707 2002471 309 5 75 048 11 2003440 267 -7 82 010 9 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 Senior Certificate examination results and HE

24. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates University Exemption NumberChange in number (%) NumberChange in exemptions (%) 2003440 267 -7 82 010 9 2004 467 985 6 85 117 4 2005508 363 9 86 531 2 2006528 525 4 85 830 2007564 775 7 85 454 0 2008533 561 -6 107 642 26 2009552 073 4 109 697 2 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 Senior Certificate examination results and HE

25. Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009 Senior Certificate examination results

26. Maintaining Standards Research Project  Purpose of the Research To provide Umalusi’s Assessment and Statistics Committee with information on the comparability of the old NATED 550 and new National Curriculum Statement curricula, and on the comparative difficulty of the exams associated with each.

27. Comparing curricula  In-depth policy analysis of content, skills and assessment  Design features i.e. outcomes, assessment standards, sequencing, progression, etc. Benchmarking NCS exams  Comparison: NATED 550 HG & SG (2005-7) and 2008 & 2009 NSC exam papers  Analysis of NSC 2009 examination in correlation with SAG Methodology

28. Subjects Considered in 2008 SubjectsCurriculum Evaluation Exam Analysis English FAL √√ Geography √√ Life Sciences √√ Mathematics √√ Mathematics Literacy √√ Physical Sciences √√ Reports are available

29. Subjects Considered in 2009 SubjectsCurriculum EvaluationExam Analysis English FAL √ Geography √ Life Sciences √ Mathematics √ Mathematics Literacy √ Physical Sciences √ Accounting √√ Business Studies √√ Economics √√ History √√

30.  This special role of mathematics has seen it continuously singled out in discussions on:  Curriculum reforms  Examination results  Historically 30% to 40% of secondary schools in the country simply did not offer any mathematics beyond grade nine  In 2009 all 620,000 learners took some form of mathematics The case of Mathematics

31.  The Class of 2009 had 52 866 learners who passed mathematics at the 50% level or higher  The Class of 2008 had 63 038 learners who passed mathematics at the 50% level or higher  This stands in contrast to the 25,000 who passed Higher Grade mathematics in 2007  A further 207 326 learners passed mathematical literacy, most of whom would not have done any mathematics in the previous system.  A total of 8 460 passed ML at the level of 80% or higher Mathematics and the Class of 2009

32. Number passing Math at different thresholds Sources: DoE, Abdridged Report on the 2008 NSC Examniation Results, December 2008; Doe, Technical Report – NSC, December 2008 Math pass rate Wrote Passed at 30% Passed at 40% Passed at 50% Passed at 60% Total did not pass 2008298 821136 50389 78863 03842 323162 318 2009290 630133 78985 49152 86631 786156 736

33. Number passing HG Math Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Figures rounded off Trends in HG Math pass rate Year No. Wrote Math No. Wrote Math HG No. Passed Math HG 1995 200,000 60,000 29,000 1996 215,000 65,000 22,000 1997 231,000 68,000 20,000 1998 280,000 60,000 20,000 1999 281,000 50,000 20,000 2000 284,000 39,000 19,000 2001 264,000 35,000 20,000 2002 261,000 35,000 21,000 2003 258,000 36,000 23,000 2004 276,000 40,000 24,000 * Pass at 50% or higher

34. Number passing HG Math Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Report on the National senior Certificate Examination results 2009 Figures rounded off Trends in HG Math pass rate Year No. Wrote Math No. Wrote Math HG No. Passed Math HG 2004 276,000 40,000 24,000 2005 303,000 44,000 26,000 2006 318,000 47,000 25,000 2007 348,000 46,000 25,000 2008 298,821n.a. 63,038* 2009 290,630n.a.52,866* * Pass at 50% or higher

35.  The cognitive challenge for mathematics for the class of 2008 was closer to the old SG level as judged by the Umalusi research panel  Furthermore there was a mismatch between the suggested cognitive demand as provided by the SAGs and the cognitive challenge in the exemplars and the final mathematics examination  Only about 46% of learners met the minimum requirements for a pass in mathematics Some remarks about Mathematics and the Class of 2008

36. 2009 exam was more challenging than the 2008 exam  2009 aligned to the exam guideline  Provided a challenge at the top end  Only about 44% of learners met the minimum requirements for a pass in mathematics Some remarks about mathematics and the Class of 2009

37. % of marks at each level of cognitive demand on HG and SG Math papers 2005-7 SG 2005-7 HG2008 NSC2009 NSCSAGS Knowledg e (%) 211091825 Routine procedur es (%) 5342623630 Complex procedur e (%) 2040243530 Problem solving (%) 7841115 Sources: Draft Composite Exam Analysis Report: Maths, Umalusi Research, 2008 Cognitive demand for HG and SG Mathematics

38.  Curriculum needs urgent attention  Content overload  Selection of examinable content (especially Chemistry)  2009 exam was of a similar standard to 2008  Difficult for both top and lower achieving learners The case of Physical Science

39.  The Class of 2009 had 45 531 learners who passed Physical Science at the 40% level or higher  The Class of 2008 had 61 480 learners who passed Physical Science at the 40% level or higher  This stands in contrast to the 28 122 who passed Higher Grade Physical Science in 2007 Physical Science and the Class of 2009

40. Number passing Physical Science at different thresholds Sources: DoE, Abdridged Report on the 2008 NSC Examniation Results, December 2008; Doe, Technical Report – NSC, December 2008 Physical Science pass rate Wrote Passed at 30% Passed at 40% Passed at 50% Passed at 60% Total did not pass 2008217 300119 20661 48032 52416 62098 042 2009220 95781 50745 53122 32910 308139 450

41. Number passing HG Physical Science Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Report on the National senior Certificate Examination results 2009 Figures rounded off Trends in HG Physical Science pass rate Year No. Wrote Phys. Sc No. Passed Phys.Sc HG 2006 69,302 29,781 2007 71,172 28,122 2008 217,300n.a.61,480 * 2009 220,957n.a.45,531* * Pass at 40% or higher

42. % of marks at each level of cognitive demand on HG and SG Physical Science papers 2005-7 SG 2005-7 HG2008 NSC2009 NSCSAG’s Factual (%) 2112 15Recall - 15 Comprehension- 35 Conceptu al (%) 29303839 Analysis &Application-40 Problem Solving (%) 50585046 Evaluation & Synthesis- 10 Sources: Draft Composite Exam Analysis Report: Maths, Umalusi Research, 2008 Cognitive demand for HG and SG Physical Science

43. Results of other Critical Subjects  Life Sciences  2009 exam was more difficult for below-average candidates, but not so challenging for above-average candidates  Accounting  curriculum  NCS content more than Nated 550 content  Examination guidelines cover 40 -50 % of new disciplines  2009 exam was of a similar standard to 2008  difficult for both top and lower achieving learners

44. Quality Assurance of the 2009 National Senior Certificate Examination Dr Mafu S Rakometsi – CEO of Umalusi

45. 2009 Quality assurance processes Moderation of the question papers; Moderation of Site-Based Assessment (SBA); Monitoring of the conduct of the NSC examination; Verification of marking; and Standardization of marks.

46. Scope of the quality assurance processes Number of NSC 2009 question papers moderated Number of subjects Number of papers Approved/ Conditionally approved at 1 st moderation Approved/ Conditionally approved at 2 nd moderation Approved/ Conditionally approved at 3 rd moderation 38130447313

47. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Moderation of SBA SubjectsProvinces ECFSGPKZNLimpMPNWNCWC Accounting√√√√ Business Studies√√√ Economics√√√ English First Additional Lang√√√ Geography√√√ History√√√√ Life Sciences√√√√ Life Orientation√√√√√√√√√ Mathematics√√√ Mathematical Literacy√√√ Physical Science√√√

48. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Monitoring of the NSC examination: writing phase ProvinceNo of exam centres No of candidates enrolled No of exam centers monitored by Umalusi No of Umalusi monitors per province No of exam centers monitored by Umalusi staff EC90876 242170401 FS31431 412170401 GP787109 535140201 KZN1 670132 931290401 Limp134101 658300401 MP52858 759340401 NC13511 461140201 NW38232 420220301 WC41648 198120301 Total5 272602 6161693009

49. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Monitoring of the NSC examination: marking ProvinceNo of marking centres No of marking centers visited by Umalusi monitors No of marking centers visited by Umalusi staff EC140501 FS150601 GP070201 KZN310801 Limp190801 MP160801 NC03 01 NW1403- WC02 - Total1214507

50. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Moderation of marking Memoranda discussion meetings  Approved and signed off finalized memoranda/ marking guidelines for all the NSC subjects Centralised moderation (see next slide)

51. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Centralized moderation of marking Non language subjectsLanguage subjects AccountingAfrikaans First Additional Language P1, P2, P3 Agricultural Science P1, P2, P3English First Additional Language P1, P2, P3 Business StudiesIsiXhosa Home Language P1, P2, P3 EconomicsSesotho Home Language P1, P2, P3 Geography P1, P2Setswana Home Language P1, P2, P3 History P1, P2 Life Sciences P1, P2 Mathematics P1, P2, P3 Mathematical Literacy P1, P2 Physical Science P1, P2

52. Areas of good practice Generally papers catered for both the weaker & high performing candidates, In many cases the Nov 2009 & March 2010 were presented at the same time for moderation, this ensured comparability of standard, External moderators signed the final papers off before dispatch to provinces for printing, Great improvement observed in the monitoring of exams by provinces, Security measures were intensified in the majority of centers across provinces,

53. Areas of concern Moderation of SBA Majority of provinces do not conduct actual moderation of SBA tasks & learner portfolios – moderation exercise is limited to a compliance audit. Majority of the SBA tasks reflect over reliance on past examination papers, educators lack creativity in developing suitable tasks, SBA tasks developed by educators focus mainly on assessing the lower cognitive skills, Educators battle with the development & use of rubrics used for scoring learners,

54. Areas of concern… Implementation & Assessment of Life Orientation (LO) requires serious attention. LO is 100% internally assessed and standards vary from one province to the other, and even within provinces. Monitoring of exams: Incidents of improper registration of candidates resulted in duplications and some candidates not registered or registered for the incorrect subjects, The appointment of suitable trained Invigilators and Chief Invigilators is essential. This will address problems relating to the flouting of even basic examination regulations. The security systems in Mpumalanga during the printing, distribution, and storage of question papers require urgent attention.

55. Areas of concern… Criteria for the appointment of markers should be strictly adhered to so as not to disadvantage candidates. Moderation of marking: Memoranda discussion meetings for small subjects did not receive the same attention as that given to the gateway subjects. These memorandum discussions were poorly attended. Added to this was the absence of input from the provinces. The problems with the improper translation of question papers into Afrikaans is still of great concern.

56. Areas of concern… Additions were made to the final memoranda without the consent of the DoBE and Umalusi. A few incidents of non- adherence to the final memoranda were observed, (pg 37, 38 of the NSC report). Some markers do not have the ability and experience to handle higher-order cognitive level questions that required insight and logical reasoning. There were instances of inaccurate totaling of marks and incorrect transferring of marks to the cover page during marking.

57. Areas of concern… Standardization of marks: Data on the raw mark distribution for 2008 did not correspond with data contained in the 2009 standardization booklets. The number of candidates reflected in the pairs analysis was also not accurate. The data sets submitted for verification of the resulting process was incomplete and sometimes not in accordance with the Umalusi specifications. This resulted in a delay of the verification process. Poor learner performance especially in Mathematics, Physical Science & Accounting point to problems with the curriculum as well as teaching and learning.

58. Recommendations Moderation of SBA: Moderation of the standard of SBA must be implemented at the school and cluster levels. Checks for compliance can still be part of the moderation process to ensure adherence to policy. All the assessment bodies should ensure that all educators are familiar with the policy requirements to ensure the meeting of national standards. Monitoring of exams: The appointment of suitably trained Chief Invigilators is essential. This will address problems relating to the flouting of even basic examination regulations.

59. Recommendations … Verification of marking: Criteria for the appointment of markers should be strictly adhered to so as not to disadvantage candidates. Standardization of marks: Data submitted for standardisation purposes must be accurate and in the specified format.

60. Recommendations … There is a need to establish a basis for the standardization of Life Orientation (LO). Umalusi recommends that an externally- written component be introduced for LO with a view to set standards for the assessment of this subject. There is an urgent need for very intensive teacher training focusing on the content of the new Accounting curriculum. This must then translate into the effective teaching, learning, and assessment of the subject. The Physical Science curriculum appears to be challenging in terms of breadth and needs to be reviewed. Teaching and Learning of Mathematics needs to be strengthened

61. Examination Irregularities The majority of irregularities were of a technical nature and these were reported to Umalusi in terms of established processes. Some irregularities were as a result of registration-related problems, eg candidates not appearing on mark sheets, some registered for incorrect subjects. Major irregularities: Leakage of the 5 papers in Mpumalanga: Mathematics P1 & 2, Physical Science P1 & 2 and Accounting. These were reported to Umalusi in October 2009. Back-up papers were moderated under tremendous time pressure.

62. Examination Irregularities… On 20 December 2009, Umalusi was informed that the DoE investigations revealed that other papers may have been compromised in Mpumalanga. An official report from the DoE was sent to Umalusi on 29 Dec. Umalusi EXCO constituted on 30 Dec and agreed that the matter be investigated further. Based on the information in the DoE report, Umalusi decided not to approve the release of Mpumalanga results at its approval meeting of 04 Jan 2010.

63. Examination irregularities… The Assessment Standards Committee of Umalusi was tasked to do a thorough verification of the Mpumalanga results between 04 and 06 Jan 2010. Method used:  comparison of the average performance of schools in 2009 with their average performance in 2008 per subject and based on their raw marks scored in both years.  the Standard deviations of these raw marks were also compared as well as the difference between the raw examination mean & the raw SBA mean between 2008 & 2009. Small positive differences in these means from 2008 to 2009 would mean that there were positive interventions. Significant (high) differences would indicate that there were possible irregularities.

64. Examination irregularities… The investigation showed that most of the differences were negative, indicating that there was a downward trend in the performance of candidates in Mpumalanga. Based on the investigation, the Assessment Standards Committee concluded that their was no indication of any patterns to suggest systemic inflation of results. Umalusi EXCO presented the Umalusi findings to the Minister on the 6 th January 2010. Based on this Umalusi Council took a decision to approve release of Mpumalanga results.

65. Conclusion The findings of the quality assurance processes are a clear indication of a maturing system that has, on the one hand, made positive strides towards improvement in certain areas of assessment and examination, but, on the other hand, still has a few challenges that need to be addressed. The quality assurance of each of these processes presented above was conducted based on Umalusi criteria. Umalusi uses criteria that are subjected to constant review and refinement, to ensure that they are in line with current trends in assessment and examinations.

66. Conclusion… As a final quality assurance measure, Umalusi moderated the final marks awarded to the candidates. This is done through a rigorous standardization process carried out in line with established principles and procedures. Through this process, Umalusi ensures the consistency of the NSC examination over time and across the provinces. Apart from the statistical inputs presented, Umalusi considered qualitative inputs, as well as very sound educational reasoning to arrive at the 2009 standardization decisions. Umalusi is proud to indicate that in the main, the candidates’ raw marks were accepted. There were very few instances where it was necessary to perform minor adjustments to the candidates’ raw marks.

67. Conclusion… In general Umalusi is pleased with the manner in which the 2009 NSC examination was administered. Umalusi acknowledges that a number of technical irregularities were reported, but these were addressed in a fitting manner. The few serious irregularities reported were also afforded proper investigation and resolution to ensure that the credibility of the 2009 NSC examination is maintained. Umalusi takes this opportunity to express appreciation to the national & provincial departments of education for their concerted effort in ensuring a credible examination. Umalusi expresses appreciation also to all the relevant stakeholders for the necessary support given in line with Umalusi quality assurance initiatives.

68. Thank you!