1. NATO UNCLASSIFIED NATO Undersea Research Centre Partnering for Maritime Innovation DART-ITHACA coordination meeting 30 Nov - 1 Dec 2006 Michel Rixen rixen@nurc.nato.int DART-related modeling activities

2. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 2 Ensembles… 2 particular research lines relevant to MILOC/EOS/NURC/NATO Acoustic properties Surface drift Ensemble (single model) –Initial conditions –Boundary conditions –Statistics/parameterization Super-ensemble (multi-model of the same kind) –Least-squares: weather+climate (Krishnamurti 2000, Kumar 2003) –Max likelihood+ regularization by climatology : tropical cyclones (Rajagopalan 2002) –Kalman filters: precipitation (Shin 2003) –Probabilistic: precipitation (Shin 2003) ‘Hyper’-ensemble (multi-model of different kinds) –e.g. combination of ocean+atmospheric+wave models? General aim: forecast + [uncertainty/error/confidence estimation]

3. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 3 ModelsDataWeights Simple ensemble-mean Individually bias-corrected ens.-mean Linear regression (least-squares) Non-linear regression (least-squares) –Neural networks (+regularisation) –Genetic algorithms Super-Ensembles (SE)… Compute optimal combination from past model-data regression, then use in forecast-mode

4. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 4 MREA04: sound velocity (100m)

5. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 5 SE Single models Analysis Errors on sound velocity

6. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 6 SE Sound speed profile errors

7. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 7 SE Weights

8. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 8 HOPS-IHPO (1) HOPS-Harv. (2) Coarse NCOM (3) Fine NCOM (4) SE (2) SE (4) SE (1, 2) SE (3, 4) SE (1 to 4) HOPS-IHPO (1) HOPS-Harv. (2) Coarse NCOM (3) Fine NCOM (4) SE (2) SE (4) SE (1, 2) SE (3, 4) SE (1 to 4)

9. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 9 ADRIA02-03 drifters (Jan-Feb)

10. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 10 Analysis: 14 Feb 2003

11. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 11 ADV WIND ADV+WIND ADV+WIND+STOKES Indiv. Forecast err.: 14 Feb 2003 (12 Feb 2003+ 48h)

12. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 12 ADV WIND ADV+WIND ADV+WIND+STOKES SEs forecast err: 14 Feb 2003 (12 Feb 2003+ 48h)

13. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 13 Drifter tracks Ocean advection Ocean+Stokes SE True Stokes Unbiased single models 24 h forecast

14. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 14

15. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 15

16. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 16 INDIV SEs

17. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 17 MS-EVA (JRP Harvard) multi-scale interactive nonlinear intermittent in space episodic in time E.g. wavelet Selecting the right processes at the right time… New methodology utilizing multiple scale window decomposition in space and time of a model

18. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 18 Note: Energy/vorticity/mass conservation issues SE and MS-EVA=MSSE Model 1 Model 2 Model N MSSE combines optimally the strengths of all models at any time at different scales Selecting the right processes from the right models at the right time…

19. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 19 Gulf of Manfredonia & Gargano Peninsula Mid-Adriatic Whole Adriatic Critical mass of research and ressources Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time

20. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 20 NURC-NRLSSC JRP GOALS Assess real-time capabilities of monitoring (data) and prediction (models) of small-scale instabilities in a controlled environment (operational framework) Produce a comprehensive data-model set of ocean and atmosphere properties (validation of fusion methods) 1A5: ensemble modeling+uncertainty 1A2: air-sea interaction, coupling/turbulence 1D1: data fusion & remote sensing 1D3: geospatial data services ONR projects: –NRL-HRV on internal tides –NICOP program on turbulence EOREA ESA (SatObSys/Flyby/ITN/NURC)

21. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 21 PARTNERS 33 institutions (on board+home institutions): 10 USA, 15 ITA, 1 GRC, 1 DEU, 1 BEL, 2 FRA PfP : 4 HRV, (1 ALB)

22. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 22 Highlights IN-SITU SEPTR (1 NURC, 3 NRL) BARNY (2 NURC, 13 NRL, 2HRV) Wave rider, meteo stations CTD chain +Aquashuttle (NRL, Universitatis) MODELS Ocean (6+3 to come) Atmospheric (7) Wave (4) REMOTE SENSING NURC: HRPT, Ground station NRL: MODIS SatObSys: SLA

23. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 23 SEPTR

24. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 24 SEPTR data in NRT on the web High bandwidth Ship-NURC satellite link NUR C GEOS II Mirror GEOS II Time based scheduled synchronizations

25. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 25 Common box

26. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 26 Data and models

27. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 27 S-TRANSFORM (SVP, 20m depth) SEPTR ADRICOSMHOPS NCOMROMS

28. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 28 Sound velocity at 20m SE MSSE

29. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 29 Hindcast skills: SE vs MSSE SEPTR OBS. MSSE SE Skill 0.1 Skill 0.9 STD Correlation

30. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 30 Forecast skills: SE vs MSSE SEPTR OBS. MSSE SE Skill 0.1 Skill 0.9

31. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 31 Multi-scale super-ensemble (MSSE) NCOM TEMP ROMS TEMP ‘Standard’ Super-ensemble (SE) Multi-scale Super-ensemble (MSSE) Optimal combination of processes instead of models SEPTR TEMP S-transform, multiple filter, wavelet Errors on sound velocity profile 4-5 m/s 1-2 m/s Courtesy Paul Martin (NRLSSC) Courtesy Jacopo Chiggiato (ARPA)

32. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 32 Forecast: error on sound velocity SE MSSE

33. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 33 Forecast: dynamic SE = KF+DLM

34. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 34 Forecast: error on sound velocity ENSMEAN UNBIASED ENSMEAN SE Kalman filter DLM+error evolution

35. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 35 Forecast skill on sound velocity Whole period and water column

36. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 36 REMARKS SE = paradigm data fusion NATO framework: cheap (i.e. marginal cost) because forecasts are available “Relocatable science”: [ocean, atmosphere, wave, surf], [shallow, deep], [in- situ, remote], [linear, non-linear] Uncertainty as a direct by-product (e.g. std of models) Interoperability, networking Reprints available 2 special issues of Journal of Marine Systems on REA

37. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 37 Publications, work (1/2) RSMAS+NURC+…: Eddy in the Gulf of Manfredonia: when? how? Baroclinic instability, history upstream, conservation of potential vorticity, Wind regimes? Seasonal signature, preconditioning? Relaxation-upwelling? NURC+NRL+..: SE, MSSE with 4 wave models (+ wave- current interaction) NURC+: MSSE/DSE at SEPTR and Thermistor sites, eddy resolving from eddy permitting models NURC+RSMAS+…: Hyper-ensemble+drifters RSMAS+NURC+…: OSSE in fine-scale area, inertial oscillations, hyperbolic point, track separation

38. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 38 Publications, work (2/2) CNR/UCOL+NURC+…: Turbulence, GOTM, ROMS HR+…: Eastern Adriatic Current NURC+NRLMRY+…: 2-way coupling, COAMPS, SAR NRL+UNIAN+NURC+…: dense water, fluxes, HOPS HR+NRL+…:internal waves NURC+ICRAM+IOF+…:optics, 1D model NURC+ARPA+NRL+…: MS-EVA on models

39. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 39 IMPORTANT Exploit DART model/data set and GEOS Great inter-disciplinary potential Available for the whole DART community Also releasable elsewhere - on request Data sharing agreement, check who are natural co-authors, acknowledgments EVENTS DART workshop, NURC, 23/24 April MREA/DART conference, Villa Marigola, Lerici, 25-27 September, proceedings Last but not least: thanks for this excellent collaboration!!! CONCLUSIONS

40. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 40 Operational Models - no CTD data ass. - two grids (coarse, fine) Analysis Forecast errors COARSE NCOM SE FINE NCOM SE COARSE+FINE NCOM

41. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 41 Operational Models - with CTD data ass. - two training options Single HOPS Model Runs Data Ass. SE I (using 2 models) Overall SE II (using 4 models) +2 NCOM models Forecast errors

42. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 42 MREA04: DRIFTERS

43. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 43 Hyper-ens.OceanMeteo Hyper-ensembles HOPS NCOM ALADIN FR COAMPS Linear HE Non-linear HE

44. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 44 Drifter tracks Ocean advection Rule of thumb Hyper-ensembles True drifter 48 h forecast

45. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 45 Hyper-ensemble statistics Julian day

46. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 46 Strong Wind Event (Bora) R. Signell

47. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 47 Standard vs refined turbulence scheme R. Signell

48. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 48 SE 5, 10, 25 and 50 days Indiv. Mod. ADV WIND ADV+WIND ADV+WIND+STK

49. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 49

50. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 50 ADV WIND ADV+WIND ADV+WIND+STOKES Indiv. mod. uncertainty: 14 Feb 2003

51. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 51 ADV WIND ADV+WIND ADV+WIND+STOKES SEs uncertainty on 14 Feb 2003

52. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 52

53. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 53

54. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 54 Lorenz equations

55. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 55

56. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 56

57. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 57 SEs MSSEs SEs MSSEs SEs MSSEs

58. NATO UNCLASSIFIED 58 A priori forecast uncertainties ENSMEAN UNBIASED ENSMEAN Kalman filter DLM+error evolution