1. California Energy Commission Preliminary 2015 IEPR Production Cost Model Common Case Input Assumptions 2015 IEPR Webinar https://energy.webex.com/ Meeting number: 927 101 374 Meeting password: cec@031015 March 10, 2015 Angela Tanghetti, Garry Mariscal and Paul Deaver Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1

2. California Energy Commission Introduction Topics to Cover – Final IEPR 2013 Compared to Preliminary IEPR 2015 Mid, Low and High Energy Consumption Cases: GHG Price Projections – Angela Tanghetti OTC Compliance Plans – Angela Tanghetti Hydro Generation Projections – Angela Tanghetti

3. California Energy Commission Introduction – Continued RPS Projections and Assumptions – Garry Mariscal Selected Simulation Results – Paul Deaver Next Steps – Angela Tanghetti

4. California Energy Commission Final 2013 IEPR GHG Price Projections

5. California Energy Commission Preliminary 2015 IEPR GHG Price Projections Source: California Energy Commission's Preliminary 2015 IEPR Carbon Price Projections Assumptions

6. California Energy Commission Ahead of Schedule On Schedule Behind Schedule Alamitos (1,2) San Onofre (2,3) Huntington Beach (3, 4) Haynes (5,6) El Segundo (3) Contra Costa (6,7) El Segundo (4) Morro Bay (3, 4) Scattergood (3) Encina (1,2,3,4,5) Moss Landing (6,7) Pittsburg (5,6) Redondo Beach (5,6,7,8) Huntington Beach (1,2) Alamitos (5,6) Mandalay (1,2) Ormand Beach (1,2) Scattergood (1,2) Haynes (1,2) Alamitos (3,4) Diablo Canyon (1,2) Harbor (5) Haynes (8) Moss Landing (1,2) Preliminary 2015 IEPR OTC Compliance Plans Owners Compliance Dates SWRCB Compliance Dates Compliance plans are identical across all three common cases MW

7. California Energy Commission California Monthly Hydroelectric Generation 2012, 2013, 2014 (Plants 10 MW and Larger) Source: QFER CEC-1304 Power Plant Reporting Statistics

8. California Energy Commission California Average Monthly Hydroelectric Generation (Plants 10 MW and Larger) Low levels of hydroelectric generation in 2012 and 2013 pulled the average down marginally. Actual 2014 generation shown for comparison. Source: QFER CEC-1304 Power Plant Reporting Statistics Preliminary 2015 IEPR (Ave. 1992-2013) 2013 IEPR ( Ave. 1992-2011)

9. California Energy Commission WECC State by State Average Annual Hydroelectric Generation Source: Energy Information Administration Forms 906 and 923, Alberta Electric System Operator Average hydro generation forecast is identical across all three common cases 2013 IEPR (1992-2011) Preliminary 2015 IEPR (1992-2013)

10. California Energy Commission Meeting California Forecasted Retail Sales With Renewables, Additional Energy Efficiency, and CHP TWh

11. California Energy Commission Additional Energy Efficiency and CHP Assumptions Additional Energy EfficiencyAdditional CHP 2015 IEPR 2013 IEPR

12. California Energy Commission Annual RPS – Preliminary 2015 IEPR Annual RPS – 2013 IEPR

13. California Energy Commission California Natural Gas Use and Energy Efficiency (Mid case)

14. California Energy Commission California Natural Gas Use and Energy Efficiency (High case)

15. California Energy Commission California Natural Gas Use and Energy Efficiency (Low case)

16. California Energy Commission Next Steps Preliminary Simulations Results Provided For NAMGas WECC Portion of North America – February 2015 Incorporate stakeholder input – March-April 2015 Incorporate Preliminary IEPR 2015 Demand Natural Gas Price and Transportation Forecast – May 2015 Final WECC Simulations For NAMGas – May 2015

17. California Energy Commission Comments? 2015 IEPR Docket http://www.energy.ca.gov/2015_energypolicy/ Click on “Submit e-comment” Choose 15-IEPR-03 from menu You may leave comments directly or upload documents 17

18. California Energy Commission Questions? Angela Tanghetti (916) 654 4854 angela.tanghetti@energy.ca.gov Garry Mariscal (916) 651 0961 garry.oneill@energy.ca.gov Paul Deaver (916) 651 0313 paul.deaver@energy.ca.gov 18