1. Recapitulation I  Methodological Aspects:  Prediction, diagnosis and explanation.  Problem of establishing causal relation- ships.  Problem of hidden common causes and confounders.

2. Recapitulation II  Example of confounding: Full moon and car accidents:

3. Recapitulation III  Common cause (factor analytic) model :

4. Recapitulation IV: Causal reasoning: Method  Experimental method: placebo- controlled, double blind studies with random assignment of units to treatments.

5. Recapitulation V: Causal reasoning: Method  Popper’s Approach:  Causal theories and assumptions can be tested, since causal models imply specific patterns of associations (correlations).  Problem of statistically equivalent causal models

6. Simpson’s Paradox: Example 1 Death sentence GroupYesNo  %YesYule’s Q Black59244825072.4-0.16 White72218522573.2  13146334764

7. Simpson’s Paradox: Example 1 Color Death sentence VictimDelinquent YesNo  %YesYule’s Q Black 11220922200.051.00 White 0111 0.00 WhiteBlack 4823928716.700.71 White 72207421463.40  13146334764

8. Simpson’s paradox: Example 1: Paik Diagram

9. Simpson’s Paradox: Example 2 Successful  LocalityTreatmentYesNo% SuccessYule’s Q Goat-townNew2018020010%0.36 Old5951005% Cow-cityNew901010090%0.50 Old1505020075%  265335600

10. Simpson’s Paradox: Example 2 Successful  TreatmentYesNo% SuccessYule’s Q New11019030037%-0.30 Old15514530052%  265335600

11. Simpson’s paradox: Example 2: Paik Diagram

12. Simpson’s Paradox: Example 3 Success FieldSexYesNo  % SuccessYules Q Social workMan1273516278%-0.20 Woman2753284% PsychologyMan17425929%-0.14 Woman9217026235%  263252515

13. Simpson’s Paradox: Example 3 Success SexYesNo  % SuccessYules Q Man1447722165%0.47 Woman11917529440%  263252515

14. Simpson’s paradox: Example 3: Paik Diagrams

15. Ecological Fallacy: Example  Treatment of clustered (grouped) data

16. Regression to the mean

17. Regression artefact: Lord’s paradox

18. Memory Judgments  Misleading information (Loftus)  Misinformation: realistic examples  Piaget  Ingram Cognitive Mechanism: Encoding, retrieval, and forgetting of memory information

19. Memory Judgments Cognitive Mechanism: Reality monitoring Cognitive Mechanism: Source monitoring

20. Exercises:  Exercise 2-2:  Simpson’s Paradox:  Exercise 2-4  Exercise 2-5